As the 2026 midterm elections approach, Donald Trump’s approval ratings have become a central focus for analysts, party strategists, and voters alike.
After the early months of his second term brought relatively steady public support, more recent polling suggests a gradual erosion. Disapproval has risen across several surveys, including on issues that once formed the backbone of Trump’s political appeal—most notably the economy and immigration.
The shift has drawn attention not only because of the numbers themselves, but because of what they signal about political momentum heading into a high-stakes midterm cycle.
Polls indicate softening support
Multiple national surveys now place Trump’s approval below the 50-percent mark. Recent findings from AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research show that roughly four in ten U.S. adults approve of the way he is handling the presidency, with a clear majority expressing disapproval.
The data suggest dissatisfaction is not limited to one policy area. Respondents frequently cite concerns about priorities, with many saying the administration is focused on the wrong issues. Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy remains stuck in the high-30-percent range, while confidence in immigration policy has declined from earlier levels.
Across surveys, the pattern is consistent: approval remains below disapproval, and skepticism is strongest among independents and voters facing economic pressure.
A broader polling picture
Aggregated polling data from sources such as RealClearPolitics place Trump’s approval in the low-to-mid-40s, with disapproval commonly exceeding 50 percent. While individual polls vary in methodology and timing, the overall trend points to a president facing headwinds rather than momentum.
Issue-specific ratings often fall below Trump’s overall job approval, particularly on the economy and immigration. Inflation, cost-of-living pressures, and uncertainty about global affairs continue to weigh heavily on voter sentiment.
Trump’s response to unfavorable polls
In response to these numbers, Trump has publicly challenged the credibility of several polling organizations and media outlets, labeling unfavorable surveys as biased or misleading. Writing on his platform Truth Social, he has argued that certain polls distort public perception rather than reflect it.
He has singled out outlets such as The New York Times, accusing them of misrepresenting his popularity. These criticisms echo long-standing disputes between Trump and major media institutions, reinforcing a familiar narrative of distrust.
While Trump has also pursued legal action against media organizations in other contexts, legal experts note that defamation claims involving public figures face a high evidentiary bar under U.S. law.
Why approval ratings matter before midterms
Presidential approval ratings carry tangible political consequences. Historically, incumbents polling below 50 percent ahead of midterm elections often face difficult conditions for their party’s congressional candidates. Lower approval can dampen enthusiasm among supporters while energizing opposition turnout.
For Republicans, softening confidence in Trump’s signature issues could present challenges in competitive districts, especially where economic pressures are most acutely felt. Campaign messaging, resource allocation, and candidate positioning are all shaped by these indicators.
The economy as a defining factor
Economic perception remains the strongest driver of presidential approval. While official metrics may show mixed or improving indicators, many Americans continue to rate economic conditions as fair or poor. Inflation, housing costs, energy prices, and everyday expenses exert an outsized influence on how voters evaluate leadership.
This gap between macroeconomic messaging and personal experience continues to complicate efforts to rebuild broader confidence.
Immigration, foreign policy, and polarization
Immigration, once a galvanizing issue for Trump’s base, now generates more divided reactions. Enforcement remains politically salient, but public approval has softened amid protests and criticism from across the political spectrum.
Foreign policy evaluations are similarly mixed. Ongoing global conflicts and strained alliances contribute to ratings that hover near or below Trump’s overall approval, adding to the sense of unease among some voters.
Party loyalty and national division
Polling consistently shows strong support for Trump within the Republican Party, contrasted with overwhelming disapproval among Democrats and skepticism among independents. This divide underscores the polarized nature of contemporary U.S. politics: firm loyalty from the base, but limited reach beyond it.
Independent voters—often decisive in midterm outcomes—continue to express higher levels of disapproval, suggesting an unsettled electorate rather than a consolidated one.
Interpreting the numbers
Polling experts caution that surveys capture moments, not destinies. Variations across polls are expected, and broader trends matter more than individual results. Methodological transparency and margins of error remain central to interpreting public opinion responsibly.
Trump’s rejection of unfavorable polls resonates with voters who already distrust mainstream media, reinforcing allegiance among supporters. Critics, however, argue that dismissing data outright risks deepening polarization and narrowing space for shared political reality.
A defining stretch before 2026
As the midterms draw closer, Trump’s approval ratings—and his response to them—will remain a central feature of political discourse. Control of Congress, turnout dynamics, and voter perceptions in key states will all hinge, in part, on how these numbers evolve.
What is clear is that many Americans are assessing the presidency through lived economic experience, policy outcomes, and national tone. How those assessments harden or shift in the months ahead will shape not only the midterm elections, but the broader political landscape that follows.
