Russia has now officially responded to the recent peace discussions between the United States and Ukraine, adding yet another layer of uncertainty to an already complex and fragile situation. The war, which has been ongoing since February 2022, has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions. Despite multiple international efforts to mediate a ceasefire, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive. However, with the U.S. ramping up diplomatic efforts, including hosting a major round of negotiations in Saudi Arabia, pressure is mounting on Russia to engage in meaningful discussions.

The latest round of negotiations, which took place earlier this week, reportedly lasted for eight hours and marked a stark contrast to the heated and, at times, unproductive meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House last month. While the latter event was marred by tense exchanges, including Trump and Vice President JD Vance demanding that Zelenskyy publicly thank the U.S. for its past support, the talks in Saudi Arabia appeared far more constructive. Following the discussions, the U.S. and Ukraine released a joint statement outlining their aim of securing a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The Biden administration had long advocated for continued military support for Ukraine, but Trump’s approach has been more unpredictable, leading to speculation about whether his administration would take a softer stance on Moscow. However, Trump has made it clear that he is willing to take serious measures if Russia refuses to cooperate.

“We could do things very bad for Russia,” Trump told reporters after the meeting. “Would be devastating for Russia. But I don’t want to do that because I want to see peace.”

This marked a significant shift from Trump’s previous reluctance to commit to continued aid for Ukraine. In addition to pushing for a ceasefire, the U.S. also pledged to resume military assistance to Kyiv, though details regarding the extent of this aid and the conditions attached to it remain unclear. Another issue on the table is a potential raw minerals trade deal, which could provide Ukraine with an economic boost as it continues to struggle under the burden of war.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, Russia has made no secret of its frustration over being excluded from the discussions. Speaking in an interview with pro-Kremlin U.S. bloggers, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the talks as illegitimate and accused Western nations of deliberately sidelining Moscow.

“Nobody is talking to us,” Lavrov said, according to the New York Post. “They keep saying, ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,’ but they do everything about Russia without Russia.”

Lavrov’s comments reflect Moscow’s broader concern that it is being boxed into a corner without direct representation in negotiations. While Ukraine and its Western allies argue that Russia’s military aggression has made it an untrustworthy negotiating partner, Moscow insists that any peace deal that does not involve its direct input is fundamentally flawed and unlikely to hold.

The Kremlin has also doubled down on its core demands, making it clear that Russia will not sign any agreements that could jeopardize what it considers to be its “national security interests.” One of the most contentious points remains NATO’s involvement in Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly warned that it will not tolerate any foreign military presence in Ukraine under any circumstances. Lavrov reiterated that Russia’s opposition to NATO forces on Ukrainian soil is “non-negotiable” and that any such deployment would be met with strong resistance.

Russia’s opposition to NATO expansion is not new. Since Ukraine’s independence in 1991, Moscow has viewed its western neighbor’s increasing ties with NATO as a direct threat. The issue reached a boiling point in 2021 when Russian officials demanded that NATO provide legal guarantees that Ukraine would never be allowed to join the alliance. When those demands were rejected, Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Another sticking point in the negotiations is Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. Despite being widely condemned by the international community, Moscow continues to insist that Crimea is part of Russia and is seeking international recognition of its claim as part of any peace agreement. According to Reuters, Putin is also pushing for official acknowledgment of Russia’s control over parts of eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting since 2014.

While Lavrov’s statements suggest that Russia has been left out of negotiations, reports indicate that Moscow has, in fact, presented the U.S. with a list of demands—contradicting the claim that it has been completely excluded. Many of these demands mirror those Russia put forward during its pre-invasion talks with the Biden administration in late 2021 and early 2022, which ultimately failed. At the time, U.S. officials dismissed Russia’s requests as unrealistic, and talks broke down. Soon after, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering a war that has now dragged on for over three years.

The question now is whether Putin is genuinely interested in a ceasefire or if he is merely stalling for time while consolidating his gains. Analysts are divided on the issue. Some believe that Russia may be willing to agree to a temporary ceasefire to regroup and fortify its positions before launching further offensives. Others argue that Moscow’s continued military operations, including recent missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, indicate that it has no intention of stopping.

Adding to the uncertainty is Trump’s own unpredictable stance on Russia. Throughout his presidency, he has often praised Putin and downplayed the Kremlin’s actions, leading to concerns that his administration may be more accommodating to Russian interests than previous ones. His recent warning that he could take “devastating” action against Russia if it refuses to comply with ceasefire negotiations suggests a tougher stance, but it remains to be seen whether he will follow through on these threats.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to push for stronger Western support, arguing that a firm and united front is the only way to deter further Russian aggression. Zelenskyy, who has faced mounting pressure at home and abroad, has made it clear that Ukraine will not accept any deal that involves surrendering its sovereign territory. His government has also expressed concern that any ceasefire could be used by Russia as an opportunity to resupply and regroup for future offensives.

Despite the ongoing tensions, the U.S. and Ukraine have vowed to continue diplomatic efforts in hopes of securing a lasting peace. Whether Russia is truly willing to negotiate in good faith—or whether it views these talks as merely another geopolitical chess move—remains one of the biggest unanswered questions in the conflict.

With the stakes higher than ever, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether a breakthrough is possible or if the war will continue indefinitely. As the world watches, the fragile balance between diplomacy and war continues to hang in the balance.