Nancy Guthrie suspect made one ‘rookie’ mistake on night of kidnapping, expert says

Major developments have emerged in the disappearance of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, as investigators intensify efforts to locate her and identify the person seen in newly released surveillance footage.

Nancy, the mother of Savannah Guthrie of NBC’s Today, has now been missing for more than ten days. The FBI recently released images and video recovered from a Nest security camera outside her Tucson, Arizona home, offering the public its first clear look at a masked individual believed to be connected to the case.

The footage shows a person dressed in light-colored clothing approaching the house at night. In one frame, the individual appears to be carrying a firearm in a manner that has drawn scrutiny from experts.

Former FBI agent Mark Harrigan, who previously led the bureau’s Firearms Training Program, told the New York Post that the suspect’s method of carrying the weapon was unusual.

“That is a very non-conventional way to carry a firearm. Very non-conventional,” Harrigan said, noting that the weapon appeared exposed at the front of the person’s body.

According to Harrigan, experienced individuals typically conceal firearms during criminal activity to avoid attracting attention. “He has it in the open, which is unusual, because normally you would want it concealed when you’re going to do a crime,” he explained.

Harrigan suggested the detail could indicate inexperience.

“That’s potentially somebody that’s not normally armed or carrying a firearm around in public,” he said. “Normally, you’d have it on the hip.”

Private investigator Andy Kay echoed that assessment, reportedly describing the suspect as a “rookie” based on the awkward way the weapon appeared to be positioned.

Beyond the firearm, the suspect’s interaction with the camera itself has also raised questions. In the video, the masked individual appears to grab nearby vegetation and attempt to obscure the lens.

“He balls his fist up, and then you see him walk back out of the vestibule,” Harrigan said. “It appears he’s looking for something to conceal the camera.”

He added that someone more experienced might have brought tools, such as spray paint or a device to remove the camera entirely.

The footage was released roughly ten days after Nancy’s disappearance. Authorities have indicated that part of the delay stemmed from the fact that her physical security camera had been removed and that she did not subscribe to Google Home’s paid cloud storage service, meaning the video was not automatically preserved.

FBI Director Kash Patel said the video was “recovered from residual data located in backend systems,” suggesting investigators had to reconstruct material from damaged or partially deleted files.

Former prosecutor and defense attorney John W. Day commented that the recovery effort highlights the technical capabilities available to law enforcement, particularly when working with private-sector partners.

The FBI is offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to Nancy Guthrie’s location or the identification of her alleged captor.

Savannah Guthrie shared the images publicly on social media, urging anyone who might recognize the person to come forward.

“Someone out there recognizes this person,” she wrote. “We believe she is still alive. Bring her home.”

Investigators have confirmed they are examining multiple persons of interest. In an interview on Fox News, Patel stated that substantial progress has been made in recent days but emphasized that individuals remain persons of interest unless and until evidence either eliminates or implicates them.

Earlier this week, one man was detained and questioned in connection with the investigation. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department confirmed deputies stopped a vehicle south of Tucson and questioned the individual as part of the case. He was later released without charges.

Carlos Palazuelos later identified himself publicly, telling Fox News he had been questioned because investigators believed someone in the footage had eyes resembling his. He denied any involvement, explaining that he works as a delivery driver in the Tucson area and may have previously delivered packages near Nancy’s home.

Authorities have not officially named a suspect, and the investigation remains ongoing.

While expert commentary has focused on possible mistakes in the suspect’s behavior, law enforcement continues to urge the public to provide credible tips rather than rely on speculation. For now, the primary objective remains clear: locating Nancy Guthrie and ensuring her safe return.

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